Tuesday, 17 January 2017

Plan for Western intervention in Eritrea

by Igor Slamoff
I have often denounced Western military adventurism in the Middle East and elsewhere. However this general rule can be disregarded if  special circumstances concur. This is the case of Eritrea, which is not a Muslim country and therefore somewhat isolated because it  cannot count  on unconditional support from its Muslim neighbors if attacked, precisely because a Western attack on Eritrea could hardly be construed as an attack on islam.
The EU can bribe officials, incite insurgencies and hire mercenary armies to do the dirty work if need be.  The ideologies most likely to work are Western democratic ideologies.
The régime’s ideology has little hold on the masses and its resistance to a determined assault would likely be meager. Any tough resistance can be overcome by foreign airplanes and ships.
The country’s religiously and racially mixed population jointly resisted Ethiopian domination  and developed  a revolutionary tradition of interfaith and interethnic solidarity to achieve national goals. This tradition is quite recent and can become the cement for building a new democratic Eritrea, once the personal rule of the tyrant is broken.
Jihadism seems absent from Eritrea.  
But what motives could the EU possibly have to change Eritrea´s régime?
The answer is MANY MOTIVES
Eritrea is a primary source of refugees who flee principally to Europe and partly to Israel. Eritrea generates many refuges for 3 reasons:
1.       because its régime is brutal and oppressive
2.       because the country is poor, largely as a result of the government’s policies, and
3.       because Eritrea has the highest birth rate in the world, so its surplus population, which is indigent,  must seek their livelihood outside the country.
Eritrea might become a model for turning failed states that threaten their neighbors into  states with justice and equality for all. However this can only occur if  the politico-military operation is well planned, well executed and offers  a short-term exit strategy. 
Success in Eritrea would necessarily involve drastic reductions in birth rates. Bringing about such a reduction in birth rates is  a task currently beyond the ability of domestic political  actors in Eritrea. But that is only because no pressure has yet been exerted on Eritrea to cut its birth rate in half over the next three years, for example.  Such a reduction in birth rate can be imposed in the short term by offering Eritreans productive capital and job training from abroad in exchange for restricting themselves to a single child. Ad there are many other methods. 
What is truly terrifying about Eritrea is that its population is MORE THAN ONE HUNDRED TIMES wat its was a century ago.  

I was inspired to write this note by proposals made by Ayaan Hirsi Ali when she was a Dutch parliamentarian, as reported in her wiki bio. 

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